This is a post from Robin Sloan’s lab blog & notebook. You can visit the blog’s homepage, or learn more about me.

Nobody knows anything

February 25, 2026

Here is Derek Thompson on AI and where it’s going:

[ … ] I am lucky to have par­tic­i­pated in con­ver­sa­tions about the future of AI with exec­u­tives and builders at fron­tier labs, econ­o­mists at AI conferences, AI investors, and other big­wigs at off-the-record din­ners where impor­tant truths can the­o­ret­i­cally be bandied about without risk. And if I had to pick three words to sum­ma­rize this col­lec­tive expert view of the future, I could not in a mil­lion years, or with a tril­lion tokens, find three words more suit­able than these: Nobody knows anything.

This was my asser­tion in the first edi­tion of my pop-up newsletter, but of course, one always wonders, is it just me who doesn’t know anything … ? Hearing Derek say it, too, makes me feel more confident.

To the blog home page