We've used a theoretical variant of the gravity model, calibrated with empirical observations, to make fairly accurate predictions about pedestrian traffic patterns on the Michigan State University campus. Applying this model to simple open-field situations, we can figure out along which paths the benefit of "cutting the corner" will so outweigh the cost of walking on mud or grass that a beaten dirt path will develop. This may be of interest to campus planners, who probably want to avoid unsightly scars across their lush quadrangles.
Then again, that may not be the case. After all, the cost of putting in obstacles or paving more sidewalks might actually exceed the costs associated with pedestrians hoofing it down a muddy trail! We'd have to be sure to factor in the costs associated with mud clean-up, with dirt-related accidents, and --
Well, hold on -- that's a different paper.
Want to know more about the calculations involved in this paper? Check out Dan Bouk's report in Microsoft Word format.
Special thanks to: Bill Latta, Jeff Kacos, and Chris Perry at the Office of Planning and Budgets.
